Planet Extra - Fate of the Language

What could be the fate of the Welsh language beyond 2011?

24.08.11

Saunders Lewis said almost fifty years ago, ‘I have to start writing this and finish it before the returns of the census of the Welsh speaking population of Wales are published’. The same is true for me now: the 2011 census results are not yet known. However, far-reaching changes have taken place since The Fate of the Language was broadcast as the BBC Wales Annual Lecture on 13 February 1962, and therefore the linguistic context in which I write is a very different one. The public status of Welsh has been raised dramatically and its visibility increased through the proliferation of bilingual signs and forms. The provision of Welsh-medium education has expanded and the numbers taking advantage of it have grown beyond all expectation. Moreover (and despite recent developments in relation to S4C) the place of the language within the media has been strengthened. Underlying these visible and largely quantifiable changes, there has been a deeper change in attitudes. In 1962, the accepted view was that the decline of the language was an inevitable if, for some, regrettable consequence of modernisation, and that little could be done to reverse this trend. In particular, it was considered inconceivable that the state could make any contribution to alleviate this situation: the language was not considered to lie within the realm of politics. It was this defeatist consensus that Lewis sought to challenge in his landmark lecture, and it was eventually undermined by the determined and persistent campaigning that the lecture spurred. Today, a new consensus is evident across much of Wales, one which assumes that the language, given the right circumstances, can survive and flourish.

Given these changes, what can we expect from the forthcoming census results? The 2001 census marked a significant turning point in the long history of the Welsh language. During the 1990s there had been an increase of around 2 per cent in the number of individuals who were able to speak Welsh. A pattern of linguistic decline that had advanced unabated since the beginning of the twentieth century had thus not only been halted, but reversed, albeit by only a very small margin. Welsh was no longer, in the words of Saunders Lewis, a 'language in retreat' and the 'language of a decreasing minority'. Therefore, in contrast to his view in 1962, I cannot presume today that the forthcoming census results will be a cause of great trauma; that as he said then, they will ‘shock and disappoint those of us who consider that Wales without the Welsh language will not be Wales’. Indeed, a decade on from that landmark census of 2001, it is not unreasonable to expect that the figures will show a further increase in the number of Welsh speakers.

Should this prove to be the case, it would mark a new milestone for the modern Welsh language movement. If the increase in the numbers of Welsh speakers continues, we will be able to take claims that were originally made tentatively a decade ago and voice them with increasing confidence. We will be able to announce that Saunders Lewis’s most dire warnings have been heeded and that the Welsh language is now unlikely to disappear. In contrast to his finding, ‘should the present trend continue’, it is likely that over the next decade we will see the number of individual Welsh speakers increase once more. Yet, while the census results may allow us to assert confidently that the language has a future, the form it will take remains an open question.

For a language to survive is one thing; for it to flourish is something else entirely. Over the years, many have argued that the Welsh language movement needs to look beyond national figures of the number of individuals across Wales who report that they are able to speak Welsh, and needs to focus instead on the situation at the community level. In particular, some have emphasised that a proper assessment of the language's health should include an analysis of the number of communities in which it is spoken by 60 to 70 per cent of the population. Moreover, there are those who argue that any effort to ensure that the language can flourish into the future must include efforts to sustain such communities. This is deemed vital, as it is only in these areas that we can say there is a sufficient density of Welsh speakers to allow the language to be used on a daily basis as the normal language of interaction.

The publication of the 2011 census results will probably lead to such arguments being voiced with renewed urgency. The figures will probably indicate an increase in the overall number of Welsh speakers, but these will probably also show that the number of 'Welsh-speaking communities' has declined once again, thus continuing a trend that has gathered pace at an alarming rate since the late 1970s. Should this be the case, the language movement would need to pause and reflect critically on its arguments, as there are aspects of the current debate about how to ensure that Welsh can flourish as a living language that cause concern.

Firstly, there is a tendency to assume that ensuring such a future for the language is wholly dependant on our ability to eschew the urban and maintain a particularly rural form of life. Indeed, this is a point of view that has been evident in recent debates regarding the closure of village schools across many parts of Gwynedd. However, it strikes me as fundamentally misguided to frame arguments about the future prospects of Welsh in purely rural terms. I should emphasise here that I do not wish to suggest that there is anything intrinsically lacking in a rural way of life. Moreover, I am not of the opinion that we should be unconcerned about the future of such communities. Nevertheless, as social scientists of various disciplinary backgrounds will testify, increasing urbanisation is a feature of modern life and there is little hope of reversing such a trend. Given this, to what extent is it wise to base our vision for the future of the language exclusively on a rural idyll of questionable sustainability? Shouldn't we also be thinking about alternative possibilities?

Secondly, and more importantly, it is striking that over recent years, claims that community sustainability is essential for the future of the Welsh language have been advanced without any serious consideration of the manner in which structural changes have transformed the way in which people live their lives and interact with one another. Today, people are increasingly mobile, and as a result, the idea of a defined territorial community – rural or urban – that acts as the main locus for individuals is one that does not hold the same significance as it did a decade or so ago. Without doubt, this is a development that has serious implications for the relevance of many of the community-focused arguments advanced by the Welsh language movement. Yet at present there is little evidence that such issues are given the attention that they deserve. This cannot continue. If we are of the opinion that a healthy future for the language is dependant on our ability to maintain networks in which it is seen as the normal medium of interaction, we need to analyse these changes in the nature of community life and reflect on their implications.

It is reasonable to assume that the battle to ensure that the Welsh language survives into the future has largely been won – a truly momentous achievement. The question that we must now ask is what kind of future will this be? Are we able to do more than merely produce individual Welsh speakers? Are we able to create a future where Welsh can truly flourish as a living language? And what does this mean? We can only hope to achieve such goals if we remain awake to the changes in the world around us. Swimming against the tide is not the way forward. Rather, we must take account of the nature of current social trends, and then seek to direct them to our advantage, so that in the next census we see no reversals but only advances.

Huw Lewis